Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center-Prime-time headache for NFL? Aaron Rodgers' injury leaves league's schedule in tough spot

In less than three weeks,Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center the New York Jets will make their first appearance on "Sunday Night Football" in 12 years against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

The primary reason for their return to the bright lights and subsequent six games in prime time on the 2023 NFL schedule, Aaron Rodgers, will not be participating. Rodgers suffered a torn left Achilles four snaps into his first game with his new team against the Buffalo Bills on "Monday Night Football." It was the most-watched "MNF" contest (22.64 million viewers across all channels and streaming options) on ESPN since the network assumed the rights of the broadcast in 2006 – aside from the Bills-Cincinnati Bengals matchup on Jan. 2, 2023, when Bills safety Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest on the field.

Such is – or was – the power of Rodgers in the nation's largest media market. Suddenly, the NFL and its broadcast partners (who pay a combined $12 billion in live rights fees) are left with a Rodgers-sized hole for five additional prime-time games involving the Jets, including Week 4's "SNF" matchup with Kansas City.

The league was banking on Rodgers not only from a viewership perspective, but as a storyline engine.

"The Aaron Rodgers story is something a lot of people are excited about," NFL executive vice president, chief media and business officer Brian Rolapp said before the season started. "I think you see that in our TV schedule."

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On Tuesday, league executives refused to express any discouragement as far as potential ratings in light of Rodgers being out for the season.

"We're going to do what we always do, which is prepare and look at the schedule," NFL executive vice president for media distribution Hans Schroeder said on a conference call with reporters. "We've got a pretty good crystal ball as we look at things.

"Obviously, (Monday) was sad as a fan, to see any of our players (have) something happen where they're going to miss the season."

The Jets, however, still defeated the Bills in overtime on a dramatic, game-winning punt return by undrafted free agent rookie Xavier Gipson. For the rest of the season, executives from the league office, networks and Amazon – which broadcasts "Thursday Night Football" – will be sure to hype the Jets defense, stud receiver Garrett Wilson and anything else that stands out regarding Gang Green.

Schroeder pointed to the emergence of San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy last year or when Tom Brady stepped in for Drew Bledsoe in New England during the 2001 season as examples of little-known players becoming household names after teammates' injuries.

"We've seen in this league a long history of players stepping up, different players emerging," he said. "It happens every year."

But the notion of Zach Wilson, who is back at the quarterback controls for New York for the foreseeable future after posting the lowest quarterback rating from 2021-22 of any passer, being able to follow a similar arc to either Purdy or Brady seems like a stretch. The league wasn't willing to bet on him as a prime-time entity after the Jets used the second overall pick on Wilson in 2021, as the Jets had a lone "TNF" game in each of the last two seasons.

And there isn't much the NFL can do at the moment. The Kansas City-New York matchup cannot be moved, and neither can the Jets' Week 9 game against the Los Angeles Chargers on "MNF." Expanded flex scheduling for "MNF," introduced this year, begins Week 12.

The league can shift the Jets' game the following week against the Las Vegas Raiders if it chooses, so long as it doesn't move more than two "SNF" games from Weeks 5-9.

Schroeder reiterated the NFL's company line of averaging 1.5 flexes per season. But there are more options than ever to tinker with the schedule thanks to the new "MNF" and "TNF" flex rules, with the latter now being open to changes from Weeks 13-17.

That means the Jets' game set for Dec. 28 against the Cleveland Browns (Week 17) could be on the chopping block. But the inaugural exclusive Black Friday game, in which the Jets will host the Miami Dolphins, is set. Already, the marketing for that matchup is shifting from a Rodgers-centric focus toward one oriented around Miami and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

"We're going to always monitor who's playing their way on, what stories are emerging," Schroeder said of flexing, pointing to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions as examples of teams that played well enough down the stretch to warrant moving into prime-time slots.

"There's a lot of football ahead across the entire league," Schroeder said. "We're going to do what we always do which is keep that focus on getting the best games on each of our windows.

"You have to really play your way onto flex. The game has to go in a direction that we think is worthy of taking off."

The exercise of preparing for a potential flex game starts weeks in advance, regardless of whether a star quarterback is dealt a season-ending injury Week 1, Schroeder said.

"Is there an opportunity that is something we can work across (broadcast) partners to get the best game into the right window? We certainly look at that," Schroeder said. "And there's a lot of variables and considerations that go into what that best game is."

Typically, the first item under consideration is the quarterback matchup. With Rodgers in New York, the league maxed out what was an ideal situation. Without him, the league might be forced to look for substitutes – at least where it can.