Current:Home > MyUS economy likely generated 200,000 new jobs in July, showing more resilience in face of rate hikes -SecureNest Finance
US economy likely generated 200,000 new jobs in July, showing more resilience in face of rate hikes
View
Date:2025-04-11 19:33:52
WASHINGTON (AP) — The American economy has generated at least 200,000 new jobs for a record 30 straight months. And the streak likely continued into July. But just barely.
The Labor Department’s latest jobs report, out Friday, is expected to show that employers tacked on exactly 200,000 jobs last month, according to a survey of forecasters by the data firm FactSet. That would be fewest since December 2020 – but still a healthy number and a sign that the U.S. labor market remains sturdy despite markedly higher interest rates.
In another sign of strength, the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 3.6%, not far off a half-century low.
The U.S. economy and job market have repeatedly defied predictions of an impending recession. Increasingly, economists are expressing confidence that inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve can pull off a rare “soft landing’’ – raising interest rates just enough to rein in rising prices without tipping the world’s largest economy into recession. Consumers are feeling sunnier too: The Conference Board, a business research group, said that its consumer confidence index last month hit the highest level in two years.
But the Fed rate hikes – eleven since March 2022 -- have taken a toll. Hiring has averaged 278,000 jobs a month this year – strong by historic standards but down sharply from a record 606,000 a month in 2021 and from 399,000 last year as the U.S. economy roared back from 2020’s brief but nasty pandemic recession.
There’s other evidence the job market, while still healthy, is losing momentum. The Labor Department reported Tuesday that job openings fell below 9.6 million in June, lowest in more than two years. But, again, the numbers remain unusually robust: Monthly job openings never topped 8 million before 2021. The number of people quitting their jobs – a sign of confidence they can find something better elsewhere – also fell in June but remains above pre-pandemic levels.
The Fed wants to see hiring cool off. Strong demand for workers pushes up wages and can force companies to raise prices to make up for the higher costs.
One welcome sign from the Fed’s perspective: Americans are returning to the job market, making it easier for employers to find and keep workers without offering substantial pay increases. The pandemic encouraged many older workers to retire ahead of schedule and kept others sidelined by health concerns and difficulty getting childcare. The share of Americans working or looking for work – the so-called labor force participation rate – sank to 60.1% in April 2020, the lowest since 1973 when many American women did not work outside the home. The participation rate has since recovered – though not to pre-pandemic levels – as health worries faded and pay rose.
For those in their prime working years – 25 to 54 – the participation rate hit 83.5%% in June, the highest since 2002. And in June, 77.8% of prime-age women were working or looking for work, the highest share in government records going back to 1948.
A rebound in immigration, as COVID-19 border restrictions were lifted, has also made more workers available.
In response to a cooling labor market, wage pressures have eased, but they remain too intense for the Fed’s comfort. Average hourly pay in July is expected to be up 4.2% from a year earlier, according to the FactSet survey, decelerating from a 4.4% year-over-year increase in June.
Overall inflation has come down steadily. In June 2022, consumer prices were up 9.1% from a year earlier – the biggest year-over-year jump in four decades. It’s fallen every month since then; but at 3% in June, it’s still above the Fed’s 2% target.
The unlikely combination of falling inflation and continued economic strength is easing fears that the United States is destined for a recession later this year or sometime in 2024. “It’s much more plausible that the economy can come back to the Fed’s target without a serious downturn,’’ said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank in Dallas.
veryGood! (5233)
Related
- Romantasy reigns on spicy BookTok: Recommendations from the internet’s favorite genre
- Police bodycam video shows arrest of suspect in 1996 killing of Tupac Shakur
- Woman charged in June shooting that killed 3 in an Indianapolis entertainment district
- Troopers who fatally shot 'Cop City' protester near Atlanta won't face charges
- Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow owns a $3 million Batmobile Tumbler
- Harvesting water from fog and air in Kenya with jerrycans and newfangled machines
- Eligible electric and plug-in vehicle buyers will get US tax credits immediately in 2024
- Stock market today: Global markets advance in subdued trading on US jobs worries
- NHL in ASL returns, delivering American Sign Language analysis for Deaf community at Winter Classic
- Pakistan says its planned deportation of 1.7 million Afghan migrants will be ‘phased and orderly’
Ranking
- A South Texas lawmaker’s 15
- How to watch Austin City Limits Music Festival this weekend: Foo Fighters, Alanis Morissette, more
- Hand grenade fragments were found in the bodies of victims in Prigozhin’s plane crash, Putin claims
- Colorado funeral home with ‘green’ burials under investigation after improperly stored bodies found
- Federal hiring is about to get the Trump treatment
- Desert Bats Face the Growing, Twin Threats of White-Nose Syndrome and Wind Turbines
- 'This Book Is Banned' introduces little kids to a big topic
- Powerball at its 33rd straight drawing, now at $1.4 billion
Recommendation
Meet the volunteers risking their lives to deliver Christmas gifts to children in Haiti
Drake's new album 'For All the Dogs' has arrived: See the track list, cover art by son Adonis
Judge denies defendant's motion to dismiss Georgia election case over paperwork error
Typhoon Koinu heads toward southern China and Hong Kong after leaving 1 dead in Taiwan
Realtor group picks top 10 housing hot spots for 2025: Did your city make the list?
Pennsylvania’s Democratic governor, a rising political star, crosses partisan school choice divide
Inside the manhunt for a detainee and his alleged prison guard lover
'A person of greatness': Mourners give Dianne Feinstein fond farewell in San Francisco